Midas Nowcasting

Total Food (CP011 Basket)

+0.7% m/m | +0.2% y/y

1. Bread & Cereals (CP0111)

+0.4% m/m | +2.0% y/y

2. Meat (CP0112)

+0.2% m/m | -2.1% y/y

3. Fish & Seafood (CP0113)

+1.0% m/m | +7.3% y/y

4. Milk, Cheese & Eggs (CP0114)

-0.4% m/m | +0.0% y/y

5. Oils & Fats (CP0115)

+0.8% m/m | -13.0% y/y

6. Fruits (CP0116)

+2.8% m/m | -0.5% y/y

7. Vegetables (CP0117)

+2.4% m/m | +0.0% y/y

8. Sugar & Sweets (CP0118)

+0.1% m/m | -0.1% y/y

9. Food Products n.e.c. (CP0119)

+0.2% m/m | +2.1% y/y

Total Food CP011: Seasonal Mean

+0.7% m/m

Total Food CP011: Current Nowcast

+0.7% m/m

Deviation from Seasonal Trend

+0.0 pp

Historical Range (Min - Max)

+0.0% to +2.9%

Category	COICOP	Multi-Year Mean m/m	Historical Range (Min - Max)	Current Nowcast	Deviation from Mean	Seasonal Alignment Status

ℹ️ Data Release Monitoring: Live target month is October 2026 (Week 4 available). Full month completed. Switch to September 2026 to inspect a completed month with full 4-week convergence.

Category	COICOP	Model Type	Weight	Nowcast W1	Revision W2	Nowcast W2	Revision W3	Nowcast W3	Revision W4	Nowcast W4	Total Revision	Eurostat Actual

Month	Nowcast W1	Nowcast W4	Revision (W4-W1)	Eurostat HICP	Forecast Error

Summary of U-MIDAS & SAR-D Food Inflation Nowcasts across 27 EU Member States

^ⓘCode	Country	Total Food (m/m)	Total Food (y/y)	Eurostat HICP	Error	Bread & Cereals	Meat	Fish & Seafood	Dairy	Oils & Fats	Fruits	Vegetables	Sugar & Sweets	Food Products n.e.c.
PL	Poland	+0.7% m/m	+0.2% y/y	Pending	-	+0.4% m/m	+0.2% m/m	+1.0% m/m	-0.4% m/m	+0.8% m/m	+2.8% m/m	+2.4% m/m	+0.1% m/m	+0.2% m/m
DE	Germany	-0.4% m/m	+0.1% y/y	Pending	-	+0.0% m/m	-1.0% m/m	-0.1% m/m	+0.9% m/m	+1.8% m/m	-4.5% m/m	+0.9% m/m	+0.2% m/m	+0.4% m/m
FR	France	+0.3% m/m	+2.0% y/y	Pending	-	-0.1% m/m	+0.2% m/m	-0.0% m/m	-0.2% m/m	+0.3% m/m	+2.6% m/m	+1.2% m/m	+0.0% m/m	-0.1% m/m
IT	Italy	+0.4% m/m	+2.3% y/y	Pending	-	-0.2% m/m	+0.2% m/m	-0.2% m/m	-0.1% m/m	-0.5% m/m	-0.8% m/m	+3.5% m/m	+0.7% m/m	-0.4% m/m
ES	Spain	-0.1% m/m	+1.2% y/y	Pending	-	-0.2% m/m	+0.5% m/m	+0.3% m/m	-0.1% m/m	-1.0% m/m	-1.2% m/m	-1.6% m/m	+0.6% m/m	+0.5% m/m
NL	Netherlands	-0.2% m/m	-1.5% y/y	Pending	-	+0.0% m/m	+0.5% m/m	+1.0% m/m	-3.6% m/m	-0.2% m/m	+0.2% m/m	+0.7% m/m	+0.7% m/m	-0.4% m/m
BE	Belgium	+0.4% m/m	-0.3% y/y	Pending	-	+0.1% m/m	-0.3% m/m	-0.7% m/m	+1.3% m/m	+0.6% m/m	+2.7% m/m	+0.5% m/m	-0.1% m/m	+0.4% m/m
AT	Austria	-0.3% m/m	-1.0% y/y	Pending	-	+0.2% m/m	-0.5% m/m	+0.3% m/m	-2.8% m/m	+1.0% m/m	-0.1% m/m	+0.4% m/m	+0.9% m/m	+0.2% m/m
CZ	Czechia	+0.2% m/m	-4.7% y/y	Pending	-	-0.1% m/m	-0.7% m/m	+0.7% m/m	+0.2% m/m	+1.4% m/m	+4.5% m/m	-3.3% m/m	+1.8% m/m	+0.5% m/m
SK	Slovakia	+0.1% m/m	-3.5% y/y	Pending	-	+0.1% m/m	+0.1% m/m	+0.8% m/m	-0.6% m/m	+1.3% m/m	-0.2% m/m	+0.0% m/m	+1.2% m/m	+0.4% m/m
HU	Hungary	-0.0% m/m	-4.7% y/y	Pending	-	+0.0% m/m	-0.8% m/m	+0.2% m/m	+1.0% m/m	-0.2% m/m	-0.6% m/m	-0.6% m/m	+0.9% m/m	+0.1% m/m
RO	Romania	+0.3% m/m	+2.1% y/y	Pending	-	+0.4% m/m	+0.3% m/m	+0.4% m/m	+0.5% m/m	+0.8% m/m	-1.3% m/m	+0.7% m/m	+0.6% m/m	+0.3% m/m
BG	Bulgaria	+0.4% m/m	+1.7% y/y	Pending	-	-0.4% m/m	-2.1% m/m	+0.3% m/m	+0.2% m/m	+0.2% m/m	-0.1% m/m	+5.8% m/m	+0.5% m/m	+0.4% m/m
HR	Croatia	-0.2% m/m	-1.0% y/y	Pending	-	-0.1% m/m	-0.6% m/m	+0.2% m/m	+0.2% m/m	+0.9% m/m	-1.3% m/m	+0.6% m/m	-0.3% m/m	-0.0% m/m
EL	Greece	+0.6% m/m	-0.6% y/y	Pending	-	-0.3% m/m	+0.1% m/m	-1.4% m/m	+0.1% m/m	+0.0% m/m	-0.7% m/m	+6.6% m/m	+0.4% m/m	+0.7% m/m
PT	Portugal	+0.3% m/m	+2.7% y/y	Pending	-	+0.1% m/m	+0.2% m/m	-0.4% m/m	+1.9% m/m	+0.0% m/m	-0.3% m/m	+0.7% m/m	+0.5% m/m	+0.4% m/m
IE	Ireland	+0.2% m/m	+0.4% y/y	Pending	-	+0.0% m/m	+0.2% m/m	-0.4% m/m	+0.3% m/m	+0.0% m/m	+0.0% m/m	+0.1% m/m	-0.3% m/m	+0.6% m/m
DK	Denmark	-0.4% m/m	-2.5% y/y	Pending	-	+0.7% m/m	-1.4% m/m	+0.6% m/m	+0.3% m/m	-3.1% m/m	+0.1% m/m	+0.4% m/m	-0.8% m/m	-0.5% m/m
SE	Sweden	+0.1% m/m	-6.1% y/y	Pending	-	+0.1% m/m	+0.3% m/m	-0.0% m/m	+0.2% m/m	+0.0% m/m	+0.0% m/m	+0.0% m/m	-0.1% m/m	+0.2% m/m
FI	Finland	+0.3% m/m	+1.9% y/y	Pending	-	+0.3% m/m	+0.2% m/m	+0.1% m/m	+0.4% m/m	+0.3% m/m	+0.0% m/m	+0.0% m/m	+1.3% m/m	+0.2% m/m
EE	Estonia	-0.2% m/m	-0.5% y/y	Pending	-	+0.8% m/m	-1.2% m/m	-1.2% m/m	+0.3% m/m	+0.3% m/m	+0.9% m/m	+0.0% m/m	-0.8% m/m	-0.3% m/m
LV	Latvia	-0.2% m/m	-5.6% y/y	Pending	-	+0.2% m/m	-3.1% m/m	+0.8% m/m	+1.7% m/m	+0.7% m/m	+0.2% m/m	+0.0% m/m	+0.6% m/m	-0.4% m/m
LT	Lithuania	-0.2% m/m	-2.7% y/y	Pending	-	+0.2% m/m	-1.0% m/m	+0.4% m/m	-0.6% m/m	+0.3% m/m	+0.0% m/m	+0.0% m/m	+1.0% m/m	+1.1% m/m
SI	Slovenia	+0.2% m/m	-0.5% y/y	Pending	-	+0.1% m/m	+0.5% m/m	+0.1% m/m	-0.4% m/m	+0.0% m/m	+0.0% m/m	+0.0% m/m	+1.0% m/m	+0.1% m/m
CY	Cyprus	+0.1% m/m	+3.7% y/y	Pending	-	+0.1% m/m	-0.8% m/m	+0.5% m/m	+0.2% m/m	+0.0% m/m	+1.2% m/m	+0.0% m/m	+0.2% m/m	+0.8% m/m
LU	Luxembourg	+0.1% m/m	+1.0% y/y	Pending	-	+0.0% m/m	+0.3% m/m	-0.2% m/m	+0.0% m/m	+0.0% m/m	+0.0% m/m	+0.0% m/m	+0.6% m/m	+0.2% m/m
MT	Malta	+0.3% m/m	+1.9% y/y	Pending	-	+0.0% m/m	+0.3% m/m	+1.2% m/m	+0.3% m/m	+0.0% m/m	+0.0% m/m	+0.0% m/m	+0.8% m/m	+0.3% m/m

📈

Full Food Basket (9 Categories)
☁️ Source: Google Cloud BigQuery

🌍 Select EU Member State (27 countries):

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🎯 Nowcasts & Decomposition

📅 Seasonal Pattern vs Nowcast

🔄 Within-Month Revisions

🌍 EU-27 Cross-Country Database

Analytical Profile: - Active country: Poland (PL) - Forecast target: 2026-10 - Model specification: 9 categories (6 U-MIDAS + 3 SAR-D) - Data release phase: Week 4 (W4 - Full month) - Data sources: DG AGRI & Eurostat HICP

HICP food basket weights for PL:

Bread & Cereals: 13.9% (CP0111)
Meat: 20.2% (CP0112)
Fish & Seafood: 3.6% (CP0113)
Milk, Cheese & Eggs: 14.0% (CP0114)
Oils & Fats: 2.8% (CP0115)
Fruits: 9.1% (CP0116)
Vegetables: 12.5% (CP0117)
Sugar & Sweets: 7.6% (CP0118)
Food n.e.c.: 16.3% (CP0119)

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