European Inflation Decomposition

Annual Inflation Decomposition
12-month rolling sum of supply and demand shocks to headline HICP; ambiguous shocks defined as residual to official Eurostat inflation (percentage points)

Supply Shocks

Demand Shocks

Ambiguous Shocks (Residual)

Actual Headline HICP (12M)

Monthly Shock Contributions
Month-over-month supply and demand contributions to headline HICP; ambiguous shocks defined as residual to official Eurostat inflation (percentage points)

Supply (MoM)

Demand (MoM)

Ambiguous (MoM, Residual)

Actual Headline HICP (MoM)

Supply Shock Drivers
Decomposition into household energy, transport fuels, food, and other supply shocks (percentage points)

Household Energy (CP045)

Transport Fuels (CP0722)

Food & Non-Alcoholic (CP01)

Other Supply Pressures

Total Supply Shock (dashed)

Actual Headline HICP (12M)

Monthly Supply Pressures
Monthly contributions across energy, transport fuels, food, and other supply-side components

Household Energy (MoM)

Transport Fuels (MoM)

Food (MoM)

Other Supply (MoM)

Total Supply (MoM)

Demand Shock Pillars
Decomposition into services, industrial goods, food & beverages, and energy & fuels demand pressures (percentage points)

Services

Industrial Goods

Food & Beverages

Energy & Fuels Demand

Total Demand Shock (dashed)

Actual Headline HICP (12M)

Monthly Demand Pressures
Monthly contributions across services, industrial goods, food & beverages, and energy demand

Services (MoM)

Industrial Goods (MoM)

Food & Beverages (MoM)

Energy Demand (MoM)

Total Demand (MoM)

Parameters

🌍 Country:

Poland (PL)

Latest observation: Aug 2026

Actual Inflation (12M)

3.5 pp

Supply Shock

-0.0 pp

Demand Shock

1.5 pp

Ambiguous (Residual)

2.0 pp

Methodology: Inflation decomposition follows Adam Shapiro (2022, FRBSF) and European Central Bank (Gonçalves & Koester, 2022). Headline inflation represents actual official Eurostat HICP rates (YoY and MoM). Supply and demand shock contributions are estimated via sign-restricted BVAR models on granular COICOP categories, and ambiguous shocks are calculated as the exact difference between the official headline index and identified shocks.

Annual Inflation Decomposition12-month rolling sum of supply and demand shocks to headline HICP; ambiguous shocks defined as residual to official Eurostat inflation (percentage points)

Monthly Shock ContributionsMonth-over-month supply and demand contributions to headline HICP; ambiguous shocks defined as residual to official Eurostat inflation (percentage points)

Supply Shock DriversDecomposition into household energy, transport fuels, food, and other supply shocks (percentage points)

Monthly Supply PressuresMonthly contributions across energy, transport fuels, food, and other supply-side components

Demand Shock PillarsDecomposition into services, industrial goods, food & beverages, and energy & fuels demand pressures (percentage points)

Monthly Demand PressuresMonthly contributions across services, industrial goods, food & beverages, and energy demand

Annual Inflation Decomposition
12-month rolling sum of supply and demand shocks to headline HICP; ambiguous shocks defined as residual to official Eurostat inflation (percentage points)

Monthly Shock Contributions
Month-over-month supply and demand contributions to headline HICP; ambiguous shocks defined as residual to official Eurostat inflation (percentage points)

Supply Shock Drivers
Decomposition into household energy, transport fuels, food, and other supply shocks (percentage points)

Monthly Supply Pressures
Monthly contributions across energy, transport fuels, food, and other supply-side components

Demand Shock Pillars
Decomposition into services, industrial goods, food & beverages, and energy & fuels demand pressures (percentage points)

Monthly Demand Pressures
Monthly contributions across services, industrial goods, food & beverages, and energy demand